Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
