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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still